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Security Analysts Downplay New U.S.-Armenian Agreement


U.S. - U.S. Secretary of State Atony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan sign a U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission Charter, Washington, January 14, 2025.
U.S. - U.S. Secretary of State Atony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan sign a U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission Charter, Washington, January 14, 2025.

Armenian analysts cautioned on Wednesday against excessive expectations from a U.S.-Armenian agreement to upgrade bilateral relations to “strategic partnership,” saying that Washington did not pledge to give Yerevan security guarantees or significant military aid.

The agreement took the form of the charter of a newly established U.S.-Armenia Strategic Partnership Commission signed by outgoing U.S. Secretary of States Antony Blinken and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on Tuesday. Blinken described it as a “framework to expand our bilateral cooperation in a number of key areas,” including defense and security.

The relevant section of the charter publicized by the Armenian Foreign Ministry says that the United States will hold “defense consultations” with Armenia and assist its armed forces “through professional military assistance training” and with “reform programs intended to increase Armenian interoperability” with Western armies. It says nothing about U.S. arms supplies or other tangible military support.

Pro-Western groups allied to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and other Armenian pro-government actors said on Wednesday that Armenia received a massive boost to its national security and territorial integrity. Some of them claimed that the document will deter Azerbaijan from invading Armenia.

“This is not a document about security guarantees,” countered Tigran Grigorian, the head of the Yerevan-based Regional Center for Democracy and Security. “This is not a document about mutual military aid. If [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev decides to embark on some escalation against Armenia he will hardly look at that document.”

At the same time, Grigorian described the charter signed at the U.S. State Department as a “serious diplomatic achievement” for Yerevan.

“Even if nothing happens in the next four years, the very existence of this document will allow us to work with the United States on various issues in the long term,” the analyst told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.

Eduard Abrahamian, an expert on international relations, was more skeptical, saying that the charter’s provisions related to defense and security are more ambiguous than those of similar documents signed by the U.S. with Georgia and Ukraine in the past.

“The issue of external threats is not mentioned, whereas the Georgia and Ukraine documents stressed U.S. commitment to support the enhancement of [those countries’] military capabilities,” he said. “We can’t talk of any security guarantees in our case.”

“The document does not mention that Armenia's environment is conflict-ridden,” complained Abrahamian. “It does not mention that Armenia is facing existential problems.”

The charter was signed almost one year after Pashinian froze Armenia’s membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid mounting tensions with Russia. While Moscow’s official reaction to its signing was rather cautious, senior Russian lawmakers issued stern warnings to Yerevan on Wednesday.

“I’m afraid that the galloping activity of Armenian representatives in signing various kinds of binding documents on cooperation with everyone and in everything may have unexpected and complex consequences for that country and its people,” said Grigory Karasin, chairman of the foreign relations committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament.

Another lawmaker, Alexei Zhuravlev charged that Washington is trying to turn Armenia into “another Ukraine” and a “Russophobic enclave in the Caucasus.”

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