Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and his entourage have been toying with the idea of an EU membership bid amid increased tensions with Russia, Armenia’s longtime ally. Pashinian discussed the idea with his political allies in February after some of them publicly voiced support for it.
Pashinian’s team brought the issue back to the political agenda in June, holding a parliamentary hearing in Yerevan featuring leaders of the fringe groups loyal to the premier. They urged the Armenian government to hold the referendum within the next three months.
Pashinian afterwards voiced misgivings about the wisdom of such a vote. He said his government should first clarify whether the EU is ready to admit the South Caucasus country.
Nevertheless, the pro-Western forces continued to campaign for the conduct of the referendum. Meeting with journalists in Gyumri, their leaders announced the impending launch of a relevant ballot initiative.
Armenian law requires the parliament to debate any initiative backed by at least 50,000 citizens. A petition signed by at least 300,000 Armenians must be put on a referendum.
The pro-European ballot initiative is aiming for 50,000 signatures for now. Its leaders would not say what they will do if they secure that number but see a resulting petition rejected by the National Assembly controlled by Pashinian’s party.
“If they don’t accept it after 50,000 [signatures,] we will gather, think, again come to Gyumri and again consult with our people,” one of them, Aram Sarkisian, said.
Mainstream opposition figures maintain that Armenia has a near-zero chance of being ever admitted to the EU. They claim that Pashinian wants to use the issue to trick Armenians into endorsing his appeasement policy towards Azerbaijan.
Pashinian’s administration has also faced warnings from Russia, Armenia’s main trading partner and supplier of natural gas. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said in June that Armenia will lose tariff-free access to the Russian market and other economic privileges granted by Moscow if its government does seek EU membership.