“I consider the possibility of escalation to be high,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told a news conference.
Pashinian pointed to Azerbaijan’s “increasingly aggressive rhetoric” and “some other information” which he refused to disclose.
In recent days, the Azerbaijani military has repeatedly accused Armenia of transporting military personnel and weapons to Karabakh and threatened to take “resolute” actions to stop the alleged shipments. Yerevan has strongly denied the allegations, saying that Baku may be preparing the ground for launching offensive military operations.
There has also been an increase in ceasefire violations reported by the conflicting sides.
Pashinian said a key task of the Armenian side now is to prove that “we are not the authors of that escalation.” He said the recent deployment of European Union monitors on the Armenian side of the border will serve that purpose. He expressed hope that Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh will also deter Baku.
Opposition lawmakers scoffed at Pashinian’s remarks. They said the heightened risk of another military escalation in the conflict underscores his administration’s failure to rebuild Armenia’s armed forces after the 2020 war in Karabakh.
“Our public has seen three attacks on Armenia since the 44-day war,” said Tigran Abrahamian of the Pativ Unem bloc. “In all three cases, with a few exceptions, it saw a state of disarray, the loss of hundreds of lives and hundreds of hectares of [Armenian] territory. That is to say that a deterrent, preventive mechanism, which Armenia was able to create, has not been created.”
Gegham Manukian of the Hayastan alliance similarly claimed that Pashinian has been busy trying to cement his hold on power instead of strengthening the country’s defense and security system.
In Manukian’s words, the deployment of 100 or so European monitors could on the contrary add to security threats facing Armenia because it was strongly opposed by Russia.
“[Pashinian] has argued that he invited the Europeans so that they monitor the actions of Armenia and the Russian [military] contingent and assure Azerbaijan that Armenia and Russia plan no military actions against Azerbaijan,” Manukian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service.