Armenian commercial banks on Friday charged customers an average of 513 drams per dollar, up from 485 drams a week ago.
Analysts agreed that the dram’s depreciation is a consequence of crippling economic sanctions slapped by the West on Russia over its continuing military assault. The Russian ruble has already lost around half of its nominal value against the dollar and the euro.
Bagrat Asatrian, a former governor of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), said Armenians are converting their savings into dollars in anticipation of the sanctions’ knock-on effects on their country heavily dependent on economic ties with Russia.
“What we have seen in the last couple of days is just emotions,” Asatrian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. “We will see more practical impacts [of the sanctions] very soon.”
It is not yet clear whether CBA will intervene in the domestic currency market to shore up the dram.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, the bank acknowledged that the weaker ruble will have a negative impact on Armenian exports to Russia and remittances from Armenian migrant workers in the short term. But it said Armenia is now less dependent on remittance inflows from Russia than it was a few years ago.
Asatrian suggested that the worsening of economic conditions in Russia will start affecting the Armenian economy in earnest “one or two months later.” “That’s when fundamental economic factors will start working,” he said.
The Armenian government predicted on Thursday that the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine will further push up food prices in Armenia. The South Caucasus country imports a large part of its wheat, cooking oil and other basic foodstuffs from Russia.
Russia is Armenia’s number one trading partner and export market. Russian-Armenia trade totaled $2.6 billion last year.